The Black Swan

We live in a complex non-linear hyper-fragile system of just-in-time products and massive debt. Total US debt and unfunded liabilities are over $120 trillion. The system will collapse under it's own weight, just like dozens of past empires all through history.

“The next one is coming. It always does.”

Nassim Nicholas Taleb laid the definition out in his book, The Black Swan. A real Black Swan isn’t just a surprise. It has three traits.

First, it’s an outlier, so far outside what most expected that the past gives zero warning.

Second, it carries an extreme impact, the kind that reshapes economies, governments, or entire ways of life.

Third, after it hits, we humans can’t help ourselves: we retroactively “explain” it like it was obvious all along.

I’ve read enough history to know that the world doesn’t change in smooth straight lines. When change hits, it lurches. One day everything seems stable and the peasants are happily tilling the fields, and the next they’re storming the castle with torches and pitchforks.

That’s the Black Swan.

Normalcy bias is a cognitive bias that causes people to underestimate the possibility or impact of a disaster, believing that things will continue to function as they have in the past. It is a form of denial where individuals ignore warning signs, believing that a negative event will not happen or will not be severe, leading to dangerous delays in action and emergency response.

Change is non-linear. Exponential. A small input can produce a very large output.

The butterfly effect is a concept in chaos theory where small, seemingly insignificant initial changes in a complex system can lead to massive, unpredictable consequences over time. Coined by Edward Lorenz, it suggests that a minor event, like a butterfly flapping its wings, could eventually cause a major event, like a tornado.

COVID-19 was a Black Swan to the average sheeple who ran out and panic bought toilet paper instead of food. Anyone paying attention had several months of warning and was already prepared anyway. I picked up on Covid in November 2019 even though it didn't fully hit until March or April 2020.

The effects didn't hit until March 2020. It's called Covid-19 because it started in 2019. How hard was that really to foresee for anyone paying attention?

Psycho-fragile left-wing Karens who physically attacked people for not wearing a mask during Covid are the same wackos who physically attack people FOR wearing a mask NOW. Literal NPCs ruled by out-of-control emotions, devoid of rational thought.

Just-in-time supply chains snapped like dry twigs. Governments printed trillions while telling you to stay home and order DoorDash™ because no one working for DoorDash© could spread the disease.

Churches closed while liquor stores stayed open. Mom and pop stores were closed while Walmart stayed open. Curb pickup was allowed for unhealthy fast food because everyone knows that the nose-picking ex-con working in the kitchen can't spread disease.

“Non-essential” people had no rights at all. That was one of the real reasons.

You had to wear a mask in a restaurant while walking to your table and then remove it to eat. Because a virus can't attack someone who is seated. That is how stupid and easily controlled sheeple are. The plandemic was a massive IQ test and America failed. That is why it won't survive.

How easily people forget. Hantavirus anyone? Anyone?

Inflation is roaring back like a thing roaring back.

China’s economic ascendency isn’t some slow rise. It’s unrestricted economic warfare, exactly like the Chinese generals described in their book. They’ve gutted our manufacturing base while we cheered “free trade.” They control rare earths, solar panels, pharmaceuticals, and now a big chunk of silver production and refining. One policy tweak in Beijing and entire U.S. industries seize up.

That’s not theory. It’s happening.

Preparedness was the normal way of life for thousands of years.

When the next Black Swan hits, which isn't really a Black Swan because it was foreseeable, most people will run out and panic buy toilet paper again.

God forbid when we truly get a Black Swan.

The Black Swan